Not a time for panic

So here’s the present state of the presidential election. Talking Points Memo PollTracker declares four states  tossups: 

·         Florida, where Obama leads by 0.6%; 

·         Ohio, where he leads by 2.4%; 

·         Nevada, where he leads by 1.1%; and 

·         Colorado where Romney leads by 1.3%.

If Romney is able to win each one of these states, he will still lose in the Electoral College by one vote. 

How likely is it that Romney will turn the trick in all four of the toss-ups? Nate Silver gives the President a 75.2% chance of winning Nevada, a 63.4 % chance in Colorado. In Ohio, the President is given a 72% chance of success. Only in Florida is it close: Romney has a 53.8% chance of winning. Remember, all that will do is get Romney to “close but not quite.” It is easy to see why Silver gives the President a 71.2% probability of winning the election. 

My own sense of it is that Romney got a bounce from his debate performance, but by definition, bounces don’t last. I think that Romney knows that what went up so sharply will come down before the election.

That would explain the new land speed record he set for changing his position on a major election issue. (Romney, as you know, has owned this event ever since he started his political career.) 

Today, at 2:20 p.m. Alaska time, the HuffPo was reporting that Romney had once again changed his position on abortion.

Mitt Romney said Tuesday he has no plans to push for legislation limiting abortion, a softer stance from a candidate who has said he would “get rid of” funding for Planned Parenthood and appoint Supreme Court who would overturn Roe v. Wade.

“There’s no legislation with regards to abortion that I’m familiar with that would become part of my agenda,” the Republican presidential nominee told The Des Moines Register in an interview.

If you hold the two mutually contradictory ideas that a woman should have control of her body and that Mitt Romney should be President, this is the stuff that makes your head explode. Not to worry because by 5:00, HuffPo was reporting that: 

The Romney campaign walked back the remark within two hours of the Register posting its story. Spokeswoman Andrea Saul told the National ReviewOnline’s Katrina Trinko that Romney "would of course support legislation aimed at providing greater protections for life.”

So, if you think it’s time to panic, open up a beer, sit in your easy chair, and watch Joe Biden eat Paul Ryan's lunch...

“… and tell ’em Big Mitch sent ya!”