Here’s what you need to know.
It follows, that at least one of Sam Wang’s two Alaska predictions is wrong. We don’t know which, so the odds that it could be either is 50-50. Therefore, both races are precisely toss-ups. This sounds like some arithmatic sleight of hand, but it is no different from the process by which Dr. Wang averages polls in a particular race. The novelty is that I am averaging a senate race with a governor’s race: I reject the assumption that the two variables are independent. Do the math, (But note that Dr. Wang is ever so slightly more sure of Sullivan than he is of Walker/Mallot.)
Plus: can you say, "ground game?"